Friday, February 16, 2007

mymrbig's fantasy baseball player discussion board

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Monday, February 05, 2007

Wrecks Grossman

The Super Bowl QB's determined my rooting interest. I'll admit, a main reason for pulling for the Colts is my annoyance with people saying Manning couldn't "win the big one." Well, now he's won as many as a starting QB as Brett Favre and Steve Young. Moreso, though, I didn't want the Bears to win because people would think that justified playing Grossman this year. As I've written, Rex has been incredibly inconsistent QB'ing a team that dominated games with defense and special teams. Rex was playing the way that was most detrimental to his team ... he should have been channeling Trent Dilfer as he managed the Ravens while they tormented opposing offenses.

What is the goal of each NFL team? Well, theoretically, it's to win the Super Bowl. Thus, if you win the Super Bowl, you've reached your ultimate goal. So, if the Bears had won yesterday, the media would have forgiven Rex for all his transgressions. The problem is, you don't know what the Bears would have done with Brian Griese under center. Maybe they would have gone undefeated if he played all year. Maybe they would have lost a couple games and won the Super Bowl. You don't know. Lovie Smith doesn't know. Personally, I think Rex was a bad choice for this Chicago team. He might be the most talented QB on the roster, but he wasn't the best signal caller for the team.

What was so bad about Rex? I'll get to that by going through the game.

The Bears took an early 7-0 lead on a Hester return for a TD on the opening kick. Why did the Colts kick it deep? With Hester's explosiveness and their ineptitude in kick coverage, the smart play was kicking short, especially with the rainy conditions.

After one first down on their first possession, Indy faced a 3rd and long and Manning was intercepted. It may have been his 7th INT of the postseason, but it wasn't a bad pick. He took a shot at a big play. An incompletion, punt and return probably would have yielded a similar result. If Harrison makes the catch, it's a first down.

Grossman goes 1-2 when the Bears get the ball back and the 2nd and 4 run nets just one yard. That's fine. But, the Colts capitalize on a blown coverage to cut it to 7-6. A fumbled kickoff by the Bears and a fumbled exchange by Manning and Addai, because of defensive pressure, give the ball back to the Bears. Thomas Jones then busted a run to the Colts 5. Two runs later, they were stuck at the 4, facing 3rd down. Grossman came through with a TD pass. A friend exclaimed "Grossman threw a TD." My wife, who was in the kitchen, asked "For which team?" But, it was 14-6 at that point and things were going pretty well for the Bears.

The Bears forced three and outs on the next two Indy possessions and UT product Cedric Benson fumbled the ball back to the Colts in between. Thus, the field position wasn't great for the Bears and they went three and out on two runs and an incompletion. Manning and the Colts moved into FG position to cut the lead to 14-9.

The Bears gave the ball to Thomas Jones twice on the next possession, resulting in a 3rd and six. What does Rex do? He throws a 2 yard pass. It's good for the completion percentage, but not so good for getting 1st downs. Manning took the Colts down the field for a go-ahead score ... 16-14 Colts.

Two short Grossman throws on the next drive resulted in 7 yards. Jones couldn't pick up a 1st down on 3rd down, so they punted. The only first downs thus far are one Grossman completion and the long run by Jones! Indy was driving when Fletcher inexplicably coughed up the ball. But, Rex coughed it right back on the next snap. Fortunately for Chicago, Vinatieri finally missed a postseason FG and they survived the first half down just two. Rex was 6-8, but his completions were 13, 6, 4, 4, 3, and 2 yards ... that's 6-8 for 32 yards.

The Colts pushed the lead to 19-14 after halftime. Rex came out with two completions and appeared to have the Bears moving. Then, he tripped on the turf retreating from pressure for a huge loss on 2nd and 1. Maybe the play call was bad. But, Grossman shouldn't have gone down without getting out of the pocket and getting rid of the ball. That was on Grossman. So was his botching of the next snap, which resulted in another big loss ... it was entertaining watching him bat it around on the ground, though. The Colts increased the lead to 22-14 on their next possession. The Bears countered, thanks to a personal foul on the Colts, with a FG on their next possession - 22-17. The Colts next drive stalled when Harrison couldn't hang onto a beautiful ball from Manning, although the coverage was pretty good.

After a nice completion to Muhsin Muhammed and a promising drive start, Grossman chucked the ball up in the air for Muhammed and had it returned for a TD. If you're going to throw a jump ball, you need to throw it short so the receiver has time to gather and go up for the ball, like a rebound in bball. The Colts DB, Hayden, was in position to do that because the whole play was in front of him. What I thought was funny was that it was on a double move. That's not the kind of ball you throw on a double move! Muhammed wasn't able to make a good play on the ball and the Colts increased their lead to 29-17, and the game was, pretty much, over.

The next time the Bears had the ball, Grossman threw another INT. Again, it was a 1st down play and, again, it was an awful throw. Berrian was open, but the ball hung up and was behind him and towards the middle, where the safety was. It was an easy pick for Bob Sanders. But, again, the defense held. After two first downs, the Bears wound up with a 3rd and 8. What does Grossman do? He throws a pass to Jones that goes for -1 yards. It's fine to throw short on third down, but your guy should be in a position to make a play. Don't do it to up the completion percentage? At that point, it's better to take a chance down the field. The Bears ended up turning it over on downs. The Colts drove a bit and then turned it over on downs, then the clock ran out on the Bears.

Grossman finished 20-28, but so many of his throws were for insignificant yardage that they were meaningless completions. Plus, a lot of the yardage he piled up was late in the game against a prevent D. The Bears were 3-11 on 3rd and 4th down and you have to convert on those downs if you want to pound a team into submission. The Bears were able to run the ball fairly well. If you take out the long run by Jones, they were still getting 4 yards a pop. The problem was that they weren't able to sustain drives.

What about the Chicago D? They played reasonably well. The offense didn't do them any favors with field position and time of possession. Even with those factors working against them, missing two major starters - Harris and Brown - and facing the Colts, they only gave up 22 points (29 minus the 7 on the INT return). The Bears D performed similarly to the Colts D against the run. But, Addai and Rhodes piled up 190 yards because they had 40 carries. They, along with the weather, caused 3 first half TO's and did a commendable job given their situation. You can't just look at the numbers. Maybe, if the Bears could hold the ball for more than 2:22 (according to the ESPN drive summary, that was their longest possession) the defense wouldn't have had to face Peyton for 40 minutes!

The Bears may be back again next year. The NFC is pretty weak and the Bears D should still be dominant. It will be interesting to see if they stick with Rex, who reminds me at times of Brett Favre when he was pondering retirement. At times, things are going well, then, he'll do things that just seem absurd. It's hard to game plan for that.

Thursday, February 01, 2007

Rooney Rule

Tongy Dungy and Lovie Smith are the head coaches of the two Super Bowl teams. They are both African American. It seems to be fairly apparent that African Americans can be successful NFL head coaches. Caucasian Americans are also among the elite from Shanahan (although he's better with #7 under center), Cowher, Belichick, Holmgren, etc. So, you don't have to be African American to coach in the NFL, which is predominantly (I heard 70% somewhere) African American players.

One of the panelists on First and 10 this morning said that the NFL still has a long way to go because the percentage of African American coaches doesn't mirror the percentage of African American players in the league. The question that must be evaluated is what should the expected percentage of African American coaches be? We all know that the best players don't always make the best coaches. That isn't to say that some great players won't be successful as coaches, but there are guys like Charlie Weis who didn't even play college football who have become hot commodities. More likely than not, the percentage of coaches should probably closely mirror the percentage of people growing up playing, watching and loving football.