Friday, January 30, 2009
The Surface Matters!
Nadal is 12-6 against Federer ... so, Nadal's obviously the favorite in the Australian Open final, right? And, Nadal is 5-2 against Roger in grand slam events ... so it's a done deal, right? That's what ESPN would have you think. But, it's not that simple. Nadal has done a lot of damage against Federer in Paris, on the clay, at the French Open. Nadal also got Federer at Wimbledon last year. However, despite taking over the #1 ranking last year (from Federer), Nadal wasn't victorious at either hard court slam last year. In fact, Nadal hasn't even made a hard court GS final before this year. Maybe Nadal has turned the corner and will finally prevail in a hard court slam. Or, maybe Federer is back on top after a down year following a bout with mono. Either way, we can only hope that people are a little more diligent with presentation of statistics in the future.
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
The problem with Utah
With Rick Reilly dismissing the Florida v. Oklahoma game, stating that Utah is the actual national champion, I feel obligated to argue against the Utes.
While the Mountain West was a solid conference this year, Utah didn't do enough in the Mountain West (which, let's face it, isn't the SEC or Big 12) or in non-conference play to warrant a top 2 ranking heading into bowl season, in spite of their 12-0 regular season.
You can't bring the Alabama win into the discussion because you can't use a bowl win as a justification that a team should have been in a different bowl because that information isn't available when the bowl match-ups are constructed.
Thus, Utah is left with victories over the following teams (rankings are final BCS ranks and all records are regular season records):
11. TCU (10-2)
16. BYU (10-2)
Oregon State (8-4)
Air Force (8-4)
Colorado State (6-6)
UNLV (5-7)
New Mexico (4-8)
Wyoming (4-8)
Michigan (3-9)
Utah State (3-9)
San Diego State (2-10)
Weber State - FCS
At the end of the season, the Utes held 2 wins over top 25 teams. How does that compare to OU and UF? OU beat Texas Tech (#7), TCU (#11), Cincinnati (#12), Oklahoma State (#13), and Missouri (#21). That's five top 25 wins for the Sooners. UF only had two - Alabama (#4) and Georgia (#15) - but the rest of the Gators' schedule was much more difficult that the schedule for the Utes, with non-conference drubbings of Miami and Florida State and conference tilts with LSU, Vandy and South Carolina (plus, the loss to Ole Miss). And, Florida made up for a lack of top 25 competition by taking teams to the woodshed. Before the SEC Championship game, every Florida win was by at least 23 points and the last 8 were all by at least 28. That's a dominant stretch.
Utah didn't have a particularly rough schedule and they barely squeaked out quite a few games. I'm not in favor of running up the score. Beating a team by 50 isn't necessarily more impressive than winning by 30, but winning by 3 makes you wonder. And, while Utah won all of their games, they had multiple squeakers, including two against teams with losing records (25-23 over Michigan and 13-10 over New Mexico). Utah also pulled two out at home: agaisnt Oregon State the week after the Beavers upset USC (31-28) and late against TCU, 13-10. While TCU put up an impressive record, they failed to show anything in non-conference play (beating Stephen F. Austin, Stanford and SMU) that makes you believe they are an elite team. Sure, they beat a mediocre Pac-10 team, but they were outclassed early in the season by OU (35-10) before OU even got rolling. The other prominent MWC team, BYU, displayed it's superiority (yes, that's sarcasm seeping through) by beating up on the bottom-feeders in the Pac-10 (UCLA and Washington) ... and UW would have had a chance to win in OT if the refs hadn't insanely penalized Jake Locker, but that's neither here nor there. So, the Mountain West has three teams in the top 16 based on what? The ability to beat decent competition? Ahhh ... their pretty good records. The three MWC juggernauts marquee win is Utah over Oregon State at home by 3 points with the Beavers coming down after taking down Pac-10 giant USC.
Hmmm ... I'm not sure Utah is such a clear cut choice to play for the national title. A good story ... maybe. Deserving of consideration ... probably, because they finished the regular season undefeated (but, so did Boise State ... and the Broncos went to Eugene and beat the Oregon Ducks - who finished 2nd in the Pac-10, ahead of the Beavers) 37-32). But, come on, are you really ready to say Utah would beat OU, UF, UT, or USC for the national title? I'm not.
While the Mountain West was a solid conference this year, Utah didn't do enough in the Mountain West (which, let's face it, isn't the SEC or Big 12) or in non-conference play to warrant a top 2 ranking heading into bowl season, in spite of their 12-0 regular season.
You can't bring the Alabama win into the discussion because you can't use a bowl win as a justification that a team should have been in a different bowl because that information isn't available when the bowl match-ups are constructed.
Thus, Utah is left with victories over the following teams (rankings are final BCS ranks and all records are regular season records):
11. TCU (10-2)
16. BYU (10-2)
Oregon State (8-4)
Air Force (8-4)
Colorado State (6-6)
UNLV (5-7)
New Mexico (4-8)
Wyoming (4-8)
Michigan (3-9)
Utah State (3-9)
San Diego State (2-10)
Weber State - FCS
At the end of the season, the Utes held 2 wins over top 25 teams. How does that compare to OU and UF? OU beat Texas Tech (#7), TCU (#11), Cincinnati (#12), Oklahoma State (#13), and Missouri (#21). That's five top 25 wins for the Sooners. UF only had two - Alabama (#4) and Georgia (#15) - but the rest of the Gators' schedule was much more difficult that the schedule for the Utes, with non-conference drubbings of Miami and Florida State and conference tilts with LSU, Vandy and South Carolina (plus, the loss to Ole Miss). And, Florida made up for a lack of top 25 competition by taking teams to the woodshed. Before the SEC Championship game, every Florida win was by at least 23 points and the last 8 were all by at least 28. That's a dominant stretch.
Utah didn't have a particularly rough schedule and they barely squeaked out quite a few games. I'm not in favor of running up the score. Beating a team by 50 isn't necessarily more impressive than winning by 30, but winning by 3 makes you wonder. And, while Utah won all of their games, they had multiple squeakers, including two against teams with losing records (25-23 over Michigan and 13-10 over New Mexico). Utah also pulled two out at home: agaisnt Oregon State the week after the Beavers upset USC (31-28) and late against TCU, 13-10. While TCU put up an impressive record, they failed to show anything in non-conference play (beating Stephen F. Austin, Stanford and SMU) that makes you believe they are an elite team. Sure, they beat a mediocre Pac-10 team, but they were outclassed early in the season by OU (35-10) before OU even got rolling. The other prominent MWC team, BYU, displayed it's superiority (yes, that's sarcasm seeping through) by beating up on the bottom-feeders in the Pac-10 (UCLA and Washington) ... and UW would have had a chance to win in OT if the refs hadn't insanely penalized Jake Locker, but that's neither here nor there. So, the Mountain West has three teams in the top 16 based on what? The ability to beat decent competition? Ahhh ... their pretty good records. The three MWC juggernauts marquee win is Utah over Oregon State at home by 3 points with the Beavers coming down after taking down Pac-10 giant USC.
Hmmm ... I'm not sure Utah is such a clear cut choice to play for the national title. A good story ... maybe. Deserving of consideration ... probably, because they finished the regular season undefeated (but, so did Boise State ... and the Broncos went to Eugene and beat the Oregon Ducks - who finished 2nd in the Pac-10, ahead of the Beavers) 37-32). But, come on, are you really ready to say Utah would beat OU, UF, UT, or USC for the national title? I'm not.
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
Arguments for All
Now that USC, Texas and Utah have won their BCS bowl games, coaches from each of the squads are calling for a national championship. Hmmm ... not everyone can win it, but everyone thinks they should. The problem is, everyone has an argument. I'm going to go through those arguments, neglecting the bowl games because I'm giving the arguments for the teams to play in the national title game. I'm going to go through them in order of the final BCS ranking (pre-bowl season).
1. Oklahoma - The argument for Oklahoma is simple ... the Sooners were the winner of one of the best conferences in football. The offense is incredible and the team is peaking at the right time. They split with Texas and Texas Tech, but the loss to Texas was relatively early in the season (and OU led in the 4th quarter 35-30) and the Sooners smashed an undefeated Tech squad. Plus, OU handily beat Cincinnati and TCU. The Bearcats won the Big East and the Horned Frogs took Utah to the wire at Utah.
2. Florida - The Gators only loss was by 1 point to a solid Ole Miss squad and the margin of victory was a missed extra point. A missed extra point. The Gators won the SEC, which is historically the best conference in football. And, aside from the 31 UF allowed to Mississippi in the 4th game of the season, Florida has allowed a maximum of 21 points. It's possible that offenses in the SEC aren't great this year, but Florida, obviously, has a solid D to go with a dynamic offense.
3. Texas - The argument for the Longhorns centers on their victory over OU on a neutral site. The loss was a last second loss at Texas Tech at the end of a rough stretch in the season (OU, Missouri, Oklahoma State, TTU).
4. Alabama - Nick Saban's squad was the only team to complete the regular season undefeated in a "BCS conference". Sure, they lost to UF in the SEC Championship Game, but how 'bout a rematch? Florida and Georgia are the only teams that put up more than 21 points on us and those teams are led by a couple decent (catch the sarcasm?) quarterbacks (Tebow and Stafford). Bama beat LSU and Georgia on the road and smashed Clemson to kick off the season. The SEC is the best conference ... why shouldn't Alabama get another shot at Florida?
5. USC - The Trojans have been really good for quite some time ... and this is just a continuation. The loss to Oregon State was a fluke. The defense is really good and the offense showed that it can put up a lot of points against teams from the state of Washington. The Trojans smashed Ohio State in a marquee early-season showdown and gave up a season-high 27 points against the Beavers. Oklahoma, Florida, Texas and Alabama can't say the most points they allowed was 27. USC didn't schedule any non-BCS conference schools and allowed 3 or less points in 6 games, 7 or less in 8 games, and 10 or less in 10 of 12 games. Defense wins championships ... and the USC defense is pretty dang good.
6. Utah - The Utes are undefeated. They haven't lost, how can you not allow them to play for the national title? The Mountain West is a good conference, too. Plus, Utah scheduled 2 big non-conference games, although the Michigan win doesn't look quite so good ... but how were the Utes supposed to know when they scheduled the match-up? Utah beat the same Oregon State team that beat USC the week before!
7. Texas Tech - The Red Raiders beat Texas. By splitting with Texas and OU, aren't they just as worthy as the others to represent the Big 12 South in post-season play? Sure, the non-conference schedule was lacking, but Utah played Weber State and Utah State in non-conference matches!
8. Penn State - The Nittany Lions smashed Oregon State early in the season ... if you want to use the Beavers as a benchmark, you have to put Penn State above Utah and USC. Penn State won the Big 10(11) and the only loss was a one-point loss at Iowa in bad weather. Penn State allowed 24 points twice ... that's even less than the most points USC allowed! And, Penn State posted 40+ 7 times, including 5 times against teams from BCS conferences. Offense and defense, what more could you want?
9. Boise State - The Broncos finished the regular season undefeated. Boise State beat Oregon. Boise State allowed 10 or less 8 times and scored 40+ 6 times. Only twice did Boise State allow more than 16 points. Not everyone can be in BCS conferences ... Boise State is undefeated ... how can you keep them out?
Obviously, each of these teams can be argued against as well. Maybe I'll do that soon ... it's more fun, anyway.
1. Oklahoma - The argument for Oklahoma is simple ... the Sooners were the winner of one of the best conferences in football. The offense is incredible and the team is peaking at the right time. They split with Texas and Texas Tech, but the loss to Texas was relatively early in the season (and OU led in the 4th quarter 35-30) and the Sooners smashed an undefeated Tech squad. Plus, OU handily beat Cincinnati and TCU. The Bearcats won the Big East and the Horned Frogs took Utah to the wire at Utah.
2. Florida - The Gators only loss was by 1 point to a solid Ole Miss squad and the margin of victory was a missed extra point. A missed extra point. The Gators won the SEC, which is historically the best conference in football. And, aside from the 31 UF allowed to Mississippi in the 4th game of the season, Florida has allowed a maximum of 21 points. It's possible that offenses in the SEC aren't great this year, but Florida, obviously, has a solid D to go with a dynamic offense.
3. Texas - The argument for the Longhorns centers on their victory over OU on a neutral site. The loss was a last second loss at Texas Tech at the end of a rough stretch in the season (OU, Missouri, Oklahoma State, TTU).
4. Alabama - Nick Saban's squad was the only team to complete the regular season undefeated in a "BCS conference". Sure, they lost to UF in the SEC Championship Game, but how 'bout a rematch? Florida and Georgia are the only teams that put up more than 21 points on us and those teams are led by a couple decent (catch the sarcasm?) quarterbacks (Tebow and Stafford). Bama beat LSU and Georgia on the road and smashed Clemson to kick off the season. The SEC is the best conference ... why shouldn't Alabama get another shot at Florida?
5. USC - The Trojans have been really good for quite some time ... and this is just a continuation. The loss to Oregon State was a fluke. The defense is really good and the offense showed that it can put up a lot of points against teams from the state of Washington. The Trojans smashed Ohio State in a marquee early-season showdown and gave up a season-high 27 points against the Beavers. Oklahoma, Florida, Texas and Alabama can't say the most points they allowed was 27. USC didn't schedule any non-BCS conference schools and allowed 3 or less points in 6 games, 7 or less in 8 games, and 10 or less in 10 of 12 games. Defense wins championships ... and the USC defense is pretty dang good.
6. Utah - The Utes are undefeated. They haven't lost, how can you not allow them to play for the national title? The Mountain West is a good conference, too. Plus, Utah scheduled 2 big non-conference games, although the Michigan win doesn't look quite so good ... but how were the Utes supposed to know when they scheduled the match-up? Utah beat the same Oregon State team that beat USC the week before!
7. Texas Tech - The Red Raiders beat Texas. By splitting with Texas and OU, aren't they just as worthy as the others to represent the Big 12 South in post-season play? Sure, the non-conference schedule was lacking, but Utah played Weber State and Utah State in non-conference matches!
8. Penn State - The Nittany Lions smashed Oregon State early in the season ... if you want to use the Beavers as a benchmark, you have to put Penn State above Utah and USC. Penn State won the Big 10(11) and the only loss was a one-point loss at Iowa in bad weather. Penn State allowed 24 points twice ... that's even less than the most points USC allowed! And, Penn State posted 40+ 7 times, including 5 times against teams from BCS conferences. Offense and defense, what more could you want?
9. Boise State - The Broncos finished the regular season undefeated. Boise State beat Oregon. Boise State allowed 10 or less 8 times and scored 40+ 6 times. Only twice did Boise State allow more than 16 points. Not everyone can be in BCS conferences ... Boise State is undefeated ... how can you keep them out?
Obviously, each of these teams can be argued against as well. Maybe I'll do that soon ... it's more fun, anyway.
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