Wednesday, March 08, 2006

Dubious Bonds statistics

I found this in an article about Barry Bonds in the Baltimore Sun this morning:
Bonds averaged one home run every 16.1 at-bats before the start of the alleged drug use, but since then has averaged one homer every 8.5 at-bats, the book points out.
The book in question is, of course Game of Shadows, by Mark Fainaru-Wada and Lance Williams, reporters with the San Francisco Chronicle.

I sincerely hope that it is unnecessary for me to point out the idiocy of this "statistic", but I'll do it anyway. The accompanying graph tells a much clearer story. The reason is that Bonds started hitting for power long before 1999 rolled around. Because his power numbers were very different in his early years with the Pirates, let's just consider his time with the Giants.

From 1993 to 1998, Bonds had 3037 at bats, 933 hits, and 235 home runs. From 1999 to 2005, he had 2519, 825, and 297.
Years AB/HR AVG
1993-1998 12.92 .307
1999-20058.48.328
There has definitely been an improvement in both home run frequency and batting average, but it is nothing like the doubling of output that the book is claiming.

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