Monday, June 04, 2007

BS Stat

Have you ever considered the blown save? I was reminded of this odd stat again tonight. Boston reliever Okajima blew a 5-4 lead against the Yankees. In doing so, he picked up a blown save. What I find interesting is that he got a blown save on a day when there was almost no shot at him getting a save (although he could have accumulated another one of those vitally important holds!). Papelbon would have, most likely, been in to finish the game.

I don't like the blown save as a stat. For closers, it is fairly straightforward. If Joe Nathan is in the game with 2 outs in the 8th, he's probably going to stay in for the 9th. So, if he gives up a couple runs in the 8th and they lose the game then a blown save makes sense. But, would other Twins pitchers stay in for the save?

The blown save is a complicated beast because the save is complicated. A pitcher may enter a close game then stay in the game for the remainder after the lead has ballooned (so the end margin is more than 3 runs). That pitcher would pick up a save in a game when a closer coming in for the 9th couldn't. So, if he can pick up a save, then if he gives up the lead in a similar situation, I guess he deserves a blown save ... but what you don't know is whether or not his team is going to score enough runs for him to get to stay in the game if he doesn't give up the lead.

And, think about this for a little bit if you don't think keeping track of blown saves for all pitchers is kind of stupid. Let's say the Yankees are up 8-1 after 6 in Roger Clemens' first start. Let's say they put in Proctor for the 7th and he gets rocked for a 2-run HR and then gives up 2 more hits before being removed. An assortment of relievers get through the inning and the 7th ends 8-6, with Proctor being charged with 4 earned runs allowed. The Yankees bring in Farnsworth for the 8th to get to Rivera and he gives up a 2-out, 2-run double that ties the game. Farnsworth gets a blown save. Proctor doesn't. Where is the sense in that?

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