Saturday, September 29, 2007

Where are the Big Wins?

In my last post, I argued that the Big East was hurt by the WVU loss because it took some of the luster off the Big East's most highly regarded team. Basically, it seems that the Big East is a deep conference lacking any major title contenders. I pointed to the lack of big non-conference wins ... but I also realize that other conferences (I pointed out the Big 12) have that problem as well.

So, I got to wondering, what conference boasts the most impressive non-conference wins thus far?

Virginia Tech is the highest ranked team in the polls with a non-conference loss (at LSU). The only other team in the polls with a non-conference loss is Nebraska (in Lincoln to USC).

I realize this is somewhat skewed because losses hurt your status in the polls. Louisville was highly regarded when they lost to Kentucky, but plummeted after a subsequent loss to Syracuse. Auburn was #17 before a loss to USF and the loss to Miss. St. didn't help their ranking. However, it's important not to look at where a team is ranked when they lost because the polls, especially early in the season, are highly speculative and aren't always a good indicator of the strength of a team.

Because Jeff Sagarin's ratings rank all the teams, I'll switch over to them as my ranking of choice for now:
Nebraska (#17) lost to USC.
UCLA (#20) lost to Utah.
Boise State (#28) lost to Washington.
Va. Tech (#29) lost to LSU.
Miami (#30) lost to Oklahoma.
Tennessee (#32) lost to Cal.
BYU (#35) lost to UCLA.
Washington (#36) lost to Ohio State.
Auburn (#38) lost to USF.
Oregon State (#39) lost to Cincinnati.
Washington State (#40) lost to Wisconsin.
Wake Forest (#41) lost to Nebraska.
Illinois (#42) lost to Missouri.
Iowa (#43) lost to Iowa State.
Michigan (#44) lost to Oregon.
Texas A&M (#46) lost to Miami.
TCU (#48) lost to Texas.
Tulsa (#50) lost to Oklahoma.

The Pac-10 is 5-4. The Big 12 is 6-2. The mighty SEC is just 1-2, although they start conference play early and still have some upcoming non-conference match-ups. The Big East is 2-0 while the ACC is 1-3 and the Big 10 is 2-3.

What does it tell you? Obviously, the Big 12 is the best conference in college football. Actually, it doesn't tell me a whole lot. But, it doesn't do anything for the Big East. The Pac-10 (which has 3), Mountain West, SEC, Big 12 and Big 10 all have wins over higher ranked non-conference foes than does the Big East. The top teams in the Pac-10 (USC, Cal, Oregon) handily beat their top 50 foes. Oklahoma and LSU dominated in their match-ups (v. Miami and Va. Tech). Ohio State looked shaky early against Washington. But, the USF win came in OT against an Auburn team that turned the ball over 5 times (to 0 for the Bulls). Yes, I know Alvarado missed 4 FG's for USF, but Auburn held them to FG attempts. In Cincy's win over OSU, they too were +5 in turnovers (7 vs. 2) to blow open a contest that was 10-3 at halftime. The big wins are few and far between because everyone refuses to schedule the games the fans really want to see. If Rutgers doesn't run away with the Big East (and Ohio State with the Big 10), it's going to be hard to take the conference winner too seriously.

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