Sunday, October 21, 2007

Double Standard

The new polls are out. The AP and USA Today polls are quite similar, with Ohio State and Boston College leading the way. Arizona State is 7th in both polls, while the other undefeated team in a BCS conference, Kansas, is 10th in the USA Today and 12th in the AP.

Proponents of Ohio State and BC at the top of the poll point to the fact that they have beaten all the teams that they've played and that's all a team can be expected to do. Thus, they should be ahead of the one-loss teams. Well, what about Arizona State and Kansas? Don't they deserve the same treatment? While I don't think Kansas is a top 5 team, they plowed through their weak non-conference schedule to the tune of 214-23 (in 4 games), with the closest contest being a 45-13 whipping of Toledo. The Jayhawks beat K-State and CU. Their next four are at A&M and Oklahoma State and at home against Nebraska and Iowa State. They could be 11-0 with a game against Missouri left. And, while they will move up if they keep winning, it probably won't be because they are jumping other teams that are winning. Oregon, Arizona State and USC are all ranked ahead of KU (which I have no problem with) ... USC at Oregon and Cal at ASU next weekend will shake things up, as will ASU at Oregon on 11/03 and USC at Cal on 11/10.

Like KU, ASU is undefeated in a major conference. ASU didn't have a major scare in their 3 non-conference games, including a 33-14 defeat of CU (when they tried to give the game away early). Like Ohio State, which faces its most stiff competition late in the year, Arizona State still has Oregon, USC, Cal and UCLA on the schedule (along with Arizona). Unlike Ohio State, Arizona State finds itself below 4 one-loss teams. Now, I realize that, at this point in the year, the rankings don't have much affect on anything.

However, I find it strange that there is a clear double standard. The resumes of Ohio State, BC, ASU and KU are all pretty similar. Thus, I don't see a clear justification for the separation in the polls. If undefeated teams go to the head of the class, move ASU and KU up, for now. If it's "body of work", scoot BC and OSU down a little bit, because neither of them have had to deal with elite competition thus far. Maybe, the pollsters just think OSU and BC are better than ASU and KU? It's possible ... but where is the proof? What facts are those decisions based upon.

Then, I thought that maybe the voters were looking at who they thought would finish the season with a better record. Maybe, fear of a loss was deterring them from moving ASU and KU up. But, if that was the case, I'd put KU ahead of ASU, which I could see losing 4 of the 5 remaining games if things don't go their way. If I had to guess, I'd say KU loses to Missouri, beats Iowa State and Nebraska, and splits with A&M and Oklahoma State ... giving them two losses on the year. But, that factor has as much to do with who a team is playing as how good a team is, so it shouldn't factor into a voters ballot if they are judging off "body of work" or record.

More likely, it's a matter of longevity. Ohio State started the year knocking on the top 10 in the AP poll. BC was just on the outside of the top 25 to start the season, but ascended to 21st after week 2 and hasn't looked back. Ohio State was 8th and BC was 12th when ASU made it's first appearance in the AP top 25 at #23 after week 4. With a 5-0 record, KU finally snuck in, debuting at #20 in the AP poll after week 6, when ASU was 14th and OSU and BC were #3 and #4. It just makes me wonder how people come up with their rankings.

No comments: