Win the Time of Possession

Do the Chargers have a chance to beat the now 17-0 Patriots? Of course. But a legitimate chance?

Well, Jim Fassel has a plan. On ESPN First Take this morning he reported that New England has averaged about 3 points per possession this season, and he suggested that if San Diego can hold them to seven possessions in the game, they'll only need to beat 21 points, and they'll have a chance in the fourth quarter.

Is this a good strategy?

Seven possessions for the Patriots means about fifteen possessions total, or about four minutes per possession. So, then, the Chargers strategy should be to keep the ball for at least four minutes at a time?

What kind of football strategy is that? Your goal is not to hold onto the ball, biding your time before you punt! Your goal is to put it in the end zone. Score touchdowns! Time of possession is a side effect.

It is common practice in all walks of life to confuse correlation with causation. Well-intentioned people get ahold of statistics, take them out of their context, and reach downright silly conclusions as a result.

The Chargers may very well win the game this weekend. And, in doing so, they may very well limit the Patriots to seven possessions. Even less likely, the Patriots may score exactly twenty-one points in the process, though I think we can reasonably rule out seven field goals. But even if these things do occur, the Chargers won't have won the game because they only let the Patriots have the ball seven times. Rather, the Patriots will have seen the ball just seven times because the Chargers were winning the game.

When an offense is playing well, it retains possession of the ball for long stretches at a time. Often, the result is points on the board. Thus, there is a strong correlation between scoring and time of possession. Poor performing offenses have lots of three-and-outs, and don't hold the ball very long. They also don't score any points.

Time of possession may well be an important indicator of offensive—and defensive—success. But it is not a worthwhile goal in its own right. If you hold the ball for a long time but ultimately punt it away, the most you can hope to gain is field position. And against an offense like New England's, that isn't worth as much as it used to be.

When it comes right down to it, if the Chargers want another trip to the Super Bowl, they have to score more points than the Pats. Everybody knows that. And if the Patriots get just seven possessions, the Chargers get no more than eight. If they can do more in those eight than Tom Brady and company in their seven, they will win. But if not, then the number of possessions is irrelevant. After all, the Jaguars held New England to seven possessions in their match-up on Saturday. Look where it got them.