Thursday, May 15, 2008

Doug Collins and Points Per Shot

At the end of the Jazz v. Lakers game, Doug Collins spent some time running through "the Bryant efficiency numbers," which are just the points per shot. The idea is fine. Sure, you don't want Kobe getting to the FT line because he shoots a good percentage and might be converting old-fashioned three-point plays. Like with any player, you'd like them to take as many shots as you can get them to take to get however many points they get. If Kobe takes 35 shots to get 25 points, you're probably better off than if he only takes 15 shots to get 25 points.

Maybe Gregg Popovich is just trying to improve the efficiency numbers for Shaquille O'neal and Melvin Ely when he employs the ridiculous hack-a-(insert name of poor FT shooter) strategy. See, even if Shaq (or Kobe on an off day) goes 1-6 from the line, they still get an extra point without adding any FGA. However, I doubt Shaq bricking 5 of 6 is probably going to benefit the Suns.

If you want to wrap FT's and FG's together, adjust the FGA so you are dividing the points by the number of possessions a player is using up. And, it might help if you subtract out FT points earned via technical fouls, as those aren't directly related to a player's offensive efficiency (one could argue some might be related because of defensive three seconds). I'd probably excluded FT's that result due to fouls that occur outside the offensive zone (like loose ball fouls at the other end of the court) because they aren't related to offensive efficiency either.

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