Monday, November 17, 2008

Baseball Economics

Brewers GM Doug Melvin might be a very intelligent man, but I couldn't help but cringe when I read one of his comments on the NY Yankees' pursuit of CC Sabathia:

“It sounds like they’re overbidding. If the speculation is true that we’ve offered CC $100 million, why would you offer $140 million? Why wouldn’t you offer $110 million?”

Speculation was that the Brewers offered CC $100 million over 5 years. The Yankees' offer was a six-year deal. Making a 6-year, $110 million offer shouldn't sway Sabathia toward the pinstripes. That's less per year than the offer from the Brewers! Melvin might have been much better off giving a per year figure, perhaps stating that the Yankees don't need to offer $23.3 million per year when the Brewers' offer was for a meager $20 million per.

I see where Melvin is coming from, but I'm not sure he has enough perspective on this issue. His point is that the Yankees are outbidding the other teams by more than a few million dollars. But, does he fail to realize that the Yankees might have to do that to get Sabathia?

The Yankees are an attractive location for players who want to win championships, because the team is always in the mix. Sure, they haven't won the World Series lately (was the last time really the 2000 Subway Series against the Mets?), but they have the resources, and management desire, to try to win every year.

However, there are also a lot of issues working against them, especially with Sabathia. First, not everyone wants to be in the circus that is associated with being a member of the NY Yankees. Sabathia seems content to play in smaller markets with a little less spotlight. And, he's from the left coast ... so location, location, location isn't working for the Yanks. Additionally, Sabathia is a good hitter. If he goes back to the AL, he gives up most of his opportunities at the dish and has to pitch to the opposing DH's.

So, maybe the Yankees feel that they need to give Sabathia $3 million extra per year and a sixth year to get him to sign on for 6 years in NYC pitching in the AL. Maybe it's enough ... maybe it's not. But, I think the Yankees really want Sabathia and are willing to overspend a little bit for the guy they want - and if the Brewers are willing to go $20 million per, I don't really think the Yankees are overspending.

2 comments:

Michael Liliedahl said...

Where pitching against a DH vs. the opposing pitcher is a valid argument, I would have to say that CC is just plain crazy if he really consider not batting in the AL as a reason not to join the Yankees. The biggest issues that I think would prevent him from playing for the Yankees are, as you mentioned, NY and their media. But I think the media can be handled. If he puts up the numbers the media would love him. He wouldn't be coming to a media group as hyped as Dice-K, and his numbers are against American professional baseball players, he's in his prime, nobody else (save Boston) can give him what the Yankees are giving him; so I would say he must have some serious misgivings about wanting to live in NY. But even if he hates NY with a passion, baseball wise, it's the smart move. Take the guaranteed six years and play for a contender for six years. I would say that the Yankees will be much more of a contender in about two seasons when management gets really frustrated with not winning the Series and does the following: basically spends enough money that they're spending tax pays for the AL Central and they get rid of Girardi and Torre wears out his welcome in LA and they bring Torre back. Mark it down now- Yankees under the guidance of Joe Torre win the World Series in 2011.

ET said...

If the Yankees can grab the trio of Sabathia, Lowe and Burnett in FA this off-season, they'd have a dominant top 4 (with Wang coming back). I'd seriously consider bring Mussina and Pettitte back on one-year deals to be the 5th and 6th starters. It's rare that all 5 starters get through an entire season healthy. This would give them some redundancy. And, while Mussina and Pettitte aren't the same pitchers they were 10 years ago, I can think of a lot of teams that would jump to have them anchor the back of their rotation.

I think hitting is a valid consideration for Sabathia. While I doubt it's a deal-breaker, it is a quality of life consideration. Whether he takes $100 million over 5 from the Brewers or opts for $140 million over 6 from the Yanks, he's not going to be hurting for money, even if the income tax percentage in the top bracket gets bumped back up. While the difference in money is almost incomprehensible for normal people, I'm not sure how much difference it would make to Sabathia. Sure, you'll have less disposable income, but he'll still have a lot. So, how much does he value the opportunity to hit? Maybe showing he's the best hitting pitcher in baseball is more important to him that being the highest paid pitcher.

I think it will be hard for Sabathia to turn down the offer from the Yankees, but I wouldn't feel nearly as good about the Yankees' chances if they'd offered $126 million over 6 years ($21 mil. per).

One analogy would be buying a car ... you often have the base price for the stripped down model, then the price goes up for additional features. I see those features being the media and NYC, the tougher AL lineups (DH included) and not getting to hit - which Sabathia does well (giving him an advantage over opposing starters) and seems to enjoy. Of course, there might be a small rebate because the Yankees will contend often. But, then there's the markup because it's the Yankees and they have the resources ... and the markup because there is a limited supply of quality SP's in FA, especially ones on par with CC.

Joe Torre back to the Yankees? Are they going to change ownership sometime? Bringing Torre back would almost require Hank & Co. to admit they made a mistake when they ran him off in the first place. I guess it's possible, but I don't see it happening. It will take a couple iterations, at least, for the Yankees to realize the man they need is Torre, and I think it might be too late at that point.