Monday, November 17, 2008

I disagree with President-Elect Obama

Apparently, Barack Obama doesn't read "There's a Catch." In a recent interview, he said "We should be creating a playoff system. 8 teams, that would be three rounds to determine a national champion, it would add three extra weeks to the season - you could trim back on the regular season. I don't know any serious fan of college football who has disagreed with me on this ..."

And, while I don't like the BCS, I've heard a lot of serious fans of college football say that they don't want a playoff because it would devalue the regular season. I don't agree with them, but they're out there.

If Obama wants to sacrifice regular season games to implement a playoff, non-conference games will be cut. This will further reduce the information we have about which conference(s) are the best. Right now, Pac-10 teams play 3 non-conference games. If you cut two games out of the regular season to implement a playoff, you're left with 1 non-conference game. There will be even fewer chances to lose during the regular season under that scenario, so teams will be even less likely to schedule difficult non-conference game. In addition, they'll probably play the non-conference game first in their schedule to prep for conference play. While Ohio State has been playing huge non-conference games to kick off the season lately, not many other teams want to do that. Teams with just eight conference games would be left with just two non-conference games. What are the chances that Brown, Meyer, Miles, Saban, Stoops, etc. schedule top 10 foes for those contests?

It isn't as easy as just taking 8 teams. How do you pick the 8 teams? Right now, Utah, Boise State and Ball State are all undefeated in non-BCS conferences. We could have a three-way tie for 1st place in the Big 12 South at the end of the season. It's possible that USC will not win the Pac-10, despite having just one loss and being ranked in the top 8.

If you take the champs from the 6 BCS conferences and then the next two highest ranked teams, it's unlikely any of the non-BCS undefeateds would make the field of 8. Barring anything drastic (Tech getting steamrolled in Norman AND the Sooners getting taken out by the Cowboys in Stillwater), at least two of the Big 12 South teams will be in the top 6 at the end of the season. Also, if Florida beats Alabama in the SEC Championship game, those two will still both be ahead of the highest ranked non-BCS team, Utah. So, the two non-champs would be from the SEC and Big 12.

I don't like Obama's idea, obviously, and these are a few of the reasons:
1. It increases the penalty for any loss
2. We have even less information about how Conference X compares to Conference Y
3. Is it reasonable to expect some teams to go to bowls while others are playing in a playoff? And, if you lose in the first or second round of the playoffs, do you still get to go to a New Year's Day bowl?
4. With even less information about how the conferences compare, how do you pick the top 8 teams? What if 5 or 6 of the top 8 are from two conferences?

Sure, the current system is flawed, but the changes that need to occur aren't trivial.

1 comment:

Tanya said...

I think you should definitely write him a letter!