Inconsistency, not steroids, doom McGwire

Today on JRIB, HOF voter Ray Ratto explained why he did not vote for Big Mac. His rationale: inconsistency. Really? Inconsistency? Not including his first season (when he played in 18 games), McGwire played in less than 50 games twice ('93 and '94) and played just under 100 games each of his last two seasons ('00 and '01). In each case, he had better power numbers and a significantly higher BA in the first of the seasons. This may be because his numbers dropped when he suffered from injuries. But, I will look only at seasons McGwire played in 100+ games from now on.

He played in 100+ games 11 times, seven times topping 150 games. His HR totals: 49, 32, 33, 39, 22, 42, 39, 52, 58, 70, 65. So, 10 out of 11 he was over 30 HR's. The 1991 season was the exception, and it also marked Big Mac's worst full season by far. In 154 games, he hit just .201. His BA in his other full seasons were better (from lowest to highest): .231, .235, .260, .268, .274, .274, .278, .289, .299, and .312. Not surprisingly, his BA was better later in his career, on average, than early on. Overall, he was a good power hitter with some huge HR years. You couldn't count on a real high batting average, but you could expect him to be somewhere in the .260-.270 range plus or minus a tenth or two.

What am I getting at? I disagree with Ratto's classification of McGwire as inconsistent. He burst onto the scene with a huge rookie season. After that, he suffered through some rough years, probably because pitchers were able to figure out ways to get him out. As Big Mac adjusted, his power and BA averages tended upwards fairly steadily until injuries forced him to hang it up early in the 21st century.

Inconsistency plagued another of the first time eligible players from this year: Cal Ripken Jr. Ripken was elected in a landslide, finishing with the 3rd highest percentage of votes ever. Ripken was twice the MVP and was an all-star 19 times. Did he deserve 19 trips to the mid-summer classic? Probably not. From 1982-1998, Ripken played less than 160 games just twice, in the strike shortened years of '94 and '95 when he played just 112 and 144 (that's all they played). His power numbers are decent for a SS. He topped out at 34 roundtrippers in 1991, his only time over 30 in a season, which helps explain why he didn't reach 400 HR's until his 18th full season.

Inconsistency? Look at his HR numbers from '90-'93: 21, 34, 14, 24. That's not really fair because He was pretty consistent in the HR department otherwise. But, he was a middle infielder with solid power, a lackluster .276 BA and just 36 SB's in his career. He was caught stealing 39 times. He followed two .300 plus seasons with two at .282. Then, he posted .252, .264, .257, and .250 from 1987-1990. Then, he hit a career high (for a full season) of .323 in 1991. He followed that up with .251 and .257 before hitting .315 in the season that wasn't finished due to the strike.

Ripken made 19 all-star teams because he was an incredibly popular player and the fans vote for the players they like. The fans do not always pick the most deserving players. In fact, they usually get it right only if the best players are also really popular. Ripken probably deserves to be in the HOF, although I will admit I'm not a Hall of Fame historian, nor do I really care who gets in or does not get in. But, the voters should have looked at his inconsistency as well. He was always on the field, but he was not always producing at a high level. In fact, there were often questions about whether or not he should sit down and end the streak because it might actually help the team.

I'm also fine with McGwire being left out of the HOF because of suspected steroid use. If that's what the voters want to do, fine. But, don't tell me he was inconsistent. He was a little bit snake-bitten at times with injuries, but his career had a definite upward trend after he burst onto the scene and then dropped off quickly in his 2nd full season. He was, other than injuries, very consistent and constantly improving through his career. It's too bad injuries robbed him of a few seasons at the end of his career. He, before Bonds, would have been chasing the Babe and Hammering Hank.