Patriots miss their last chance

Brian Billick could learn a thing or two from Bill Belichick. But then, so could Belichick himself.

In the middle of the third quarter of their game last week against the Colts, down 12-3, the Ravens had 4th and 4 at the Indianapolis 41. This is the gray area between a clear field goal opportunity and a clear punting situation where teams often choose to go for it on fourth down. The Ravens ultimately elected to punt. The Colts made a fair catch at their own eleven. Then, on the very next play, Dominic Rhodes ran for twenty-five yards back to the 36 yard line. In one play, the Colts had all but five yards of the field position back. In other words, the Ravens might as well have gone for it.

Last night, the Patriots twice went for it on fourth down in the first half of their game against the Colts. First, from the Indianapolis 48 on 4th and 1, and on their next drive from the Indianapolis 34 on 4th and 6. Both drives resulted in touchdowns for the Patriots. These two plays, along with Asante Samuel's interception, helped them build their 21-3 lead that almost made it to halftime.

After scoring another field goal to finish the first half, the Colts really got their comeback in gear in the second half. They scored a touchdown on their first possession, held the Patriots to three-and-out, then drove for another TD and a two-point conversion to tie the game.

After a long kickoff return by Ellis Hobbs, the Patriots scored their fourth touchdown of the game. From there, the back and forth continued with another touchdown for the Colts, a pair of three-and-outs, and a pair of field goals.

With the score knotted at 31 and 5:31 left in the game, the Patriots got another good kick return and set up at their own 46. They made one play to get to the Indianapolis 29, and then progress again stalled. After two incomplete passes, they ran the ball on third and ten, apparently to set up an easier kick. On fourth and 6 from the 25, they kicked their second field goal and sealed their fate.

The question is, why wasn't Belichick more aggressive here, like he had been in the first half? Up to this point, the Colts had had five possessions in the second half, with their best starting field position their own 33. They had scored on four of the five, including three touchdowns. Did Belichick really think that his defense was going to shut them down?

As it happened, the Colts did go three-and-out on their next possession. Peyton Manning threw three incomplete passes, and advocates of the "choking" theory patted themselves on the back. But then "Golden Boy" Tom Brady also went three-and-out, and the Colts got the ball back with 2:17 on the clock. The rest, as they say, is football history. The Colts drove 80 yards on seven plays, finishing with three Joseph Addai runs that put them in the endzone with one minute remaining. Brady ended the Patriots chances with an interception on their ensuing possession.

Of course, I admit, hindsight is twenty-twenty. It's easy to second guess a coach's decisions when you get to see how they turn out. Nonetheless, I think there is something here. The way the second half developed, the Patriots were only in the game because of their special teams. And they had only built their big lead in the first half by taking chances. Without those first two touchdowns, and assuming that one of them turned into a field goal, we have 10-6 at halftime instead of 21-6. That's the only reason the Patriots were still in the game at 31-31. Why decide to play conservatively with the game on the line?

Given that they scored a crucial touchdown in their previous game against the Chargers after a fumble recovery following a fourth-down Tom Brady interception, I think it's fair to say that the Patriots would not have been in the AFC Championship Game at all without a fair amount of good luck. But good luck is not something that is merely handed down from on high. If you want to benefit from good luck, you have to put yourself in a position to get it. Going for it on fourth down was the source of most of the Patriots' luck in their last two games. One more shot at it might have been their ticket to the Super Bowl.