The Top Two - 1/19/07

I'm going to make this short because I have some other things to get to, but heading into the weekend, the top two topics are the games to determine the Super Bowl participants for thie NFL season. Patriots v. Colts and Saints v. Bears - We'll start with the NFC. The Saints should win. Like all the other teams in the conference, they've been inconsistent this season. They should be the favorite, even in Chicago, because they have more ways to beat you offensively than the Bears do. Plus, the Saints have an undeniable advantage at the QB spot. And, the issue of which team has the better defense is debatable. The Bears are without DT stud Tommie Harris. People were talking about him as the defensive MVP early in the season. Plus, they're without the glue of their secondary, turnover magnet S Mike Brown. They still have Urlacher, Briggs, Ogunleye, Alex Brown, etc., but when you remove two key components, it has a negative impact on everyone else. The defense starts upfront and especially with strength at DT. Harris commands double teams when he's healthy and that increases the effectiveness of the pass rushing ends. Plus, he's a key component for stuffing the run by making plays in the backfield, disrupting blocking schemes and keeping blockers off the LB's. If you can stop the run and put pressure on the QB, it makes the job of the secondary that much easier. So, the Harris loss is huge. And, look at the Colts to see the type of impact a S can have on a defense.

Maybe Rex will play out of his mind. Maybe it won't be the Saints day on Sunday. Maybe the weather will be awful and it will come down to a battle of the offensive fronts. But, the Saints should win this one.

Unlike the NFC contest, the AFC winner should be the home team. Yep, I'm going with the Colts. Now, I will admit I have a slight bias in that I hate the Patriots. Plus, my brother has a striking resemblance to Peyton Manning, although he's just 6'4" and he doesn't really have a laser, rocket arm. He's a solid athlete and I'd probably take him in a foot race against the Indy QB.

And, despite attempts to hype up the match-up by pitting one coach against the other, one QB against the other and one K against the other, that's not what it's about. As new Dolphins coach Cam Cameron said "Football is the ultimate team sport." If you want to determine who's better, Manning or Brady, make some robots to run routes and put them in the same situations and see who comes out on top. Think of it as a more complex QB challenge. And, if you want to compare coaches, track down the old football game my uncle had. The offense and defense would each pick a play and you'd overlay the two cards and it would show the likelihood of each result. Play a series of games and may the best man win. For the kickers, how 'bout a good old-fashioned game of horse. Oh wait, that obviously helps out Vinatieri so we better go with M-I-A-M-I.

The Colts are more likely to win because they're at home and they're playing better than the Patriots. Despite not blowing the Ravens away, they were in control of that game the entire way. The same thing can be said of their WC game against the Chiefs, although the game was a little less in doubt throughout. The Pats were fortunate to beat the Chargers. The key play was forcing a fumble after an interception on 4th down. When that is the key to your victory, you knew you weren't in control of the game. And, despite the margin of victory, the game against the Jets wasn't that impressive either.

The Pats don't "own" the Colts in the playoffs. Manning is 0-2 against them. But, weren't the Pats expected to win those two? The Colts have defeated NE each of the last two regular seasons. Before that, they had trouble with them in the regular season too. The two playoff games were not played under the best weather conditions for airing it out. And, that version of the Pats had Ted Washington in the middle to stuff the run. That's a tough combination for an offense. The climate will be controlled in the RCA Dome, increasing Manning's chances for success in the passing game over a situation with snow flurries in the forecast. Plus, LT and Michael Turner showed that the Pats run defense can be vulnerable. If Manning has success early in the passing game, that will help Addai and Rhodes make hay for the Colts. Yummy.