Leyland Holds Gambler for Game 6

Quick question: how do you win the World Series (or any 7 game series)? Obviously, the answer is that you win four games. So, under what situation will the Tigers have a chance to win the 2006 World Series? If, and only if, the series is tied 3-3 after six games. So, the Tigers have to win two in a row to even have a shot at a game to knock off the Cardinals. Each of the next three games for the Tigers is as important as the others because if they lose any of them, their season will be done. If you'd rather lose the World Series in six games than five, then you should quit reading this post right now. Either way, you lose ... so I don't really see much difference.

Therefore, I don't understand why people think Jim Leyland should throw Kenny Rogers out against Jeff Weaver in St. Louis for the fifth game. To get to game 7, you have to win both games 5 and 6, so Kenny Rogers is just as valuable in game 6 as he is in game 5. Perhaps, it would be better to throw Rogers in game 5, but not because he's the ace of the Tigers. You only pitch Rogers in game 5 if doing so gives you the best opportunity to win the series, not just one more game.

The Cardinals are pitching Jeff Weaver in game 5. Without another rainout, I think the Cards will be forced into throwing Anthony Reyes in one of the games in Detroit, if there are any games in Detroit. The other game in Detroit, assuming the Tigers keep winning, they will face Cards ace Chris Carpenter. Justin Verlander is the next guy up in the four-man rotation, having started game 1. And, Verlander had a much better road ERA than Rogers this year (3.91 to 4.41), while they had similar home ERA's (3.31 to 3.27). So, by the bulk numbers, Verlander is the better choice to start on the road. Additionally, while Rogers has been lights out in the postseason (3-0, 23 IP, 0 RA in 3 GS), how many innings has Rogers thrown on the road during the postseason? 0. Leyland didn't throw him in Oakland, where Rogers has been excellent during his career. Why should Leyland throw him in St. Louis when he can try to match ace v. ace in game 6 (if LaRussa puts Carpenter out there)?

Verlander hasn't been great in the postseason, but the Tigers have a better chance with him against Weaver than with him against Carpenter. And, in the end, the probability of the Tigers winning the World Series is the product of the probability that they win each of the remaining three games. So, if they have a 50% chance in each game, they have a 1/8 probability of taking the series. It's Leyland's job as a manager to align his rotation in the way that maximizes the probability: P(Tigers win game 5)*P(Tigers win game 6)*P(Tigers win game 7). Whether or not that also maximizes the probability that the Tigers win game 5 is irrelevant! Irrelevant!

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