Friday, October 20, 2006

Randolph uses right bullets but misses elusive Cards

Former Phillies 1B and current ESPN analyst John Kruk was critical of Mets Manager Willie Randolph for his handling of his bullpen in the Mets 3-1 game 7 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLCS. Kruk thought Mets closer Billy Wagner should have been in the game in the top of the ninth, with the score tied 1-1, instead of Mets set-up man Aaron Heilman. I disagree.

I agree with Kruk that Wagner is the best reliever the Mets have and you want to go down with your best pitcher on the mound, not your #2 reliever, if you are going to have to swallow a loss to end your season. Do you want Michael Jordan taking the last-second jump shot? Tiger Woods standing over a tournament-clinching putt on 18?

However, last night's game wasn't setting up to be a one-shot deal. It was a tied game. The game could have lasted indefinitely, it's one of the enduring traits about baseball. The game was tied 1-1 with the bottom portion of each team's line-up due up in the ninth. The Cardinals had Edmonds, Rolen, and Molina due up in the top of the ninth. That's 5-7 in the St. Louis line-up. Heilman had just manuevered through the top of the order in the 8th, getting Eckstein, Spiezio (hitting for Wilson) and Encarnacion, with an intentional walk of Albert Pujols with 2 outs. Potentially, Heilman could work through two more innings without much danger if he could get Edmonds-Rolen-Molina, then Belliard-pinch hitter-Eckstein. Then, Billy Wagner could come in to face Spiezio, Pujols, Encarnacion, Edmonds, etc.

The Mets had the bottom of their order due up in the ninth. That was probably a contributing factor to not bringing in Wagner. The Mets would be trying to push across a run with Valentin-Chavez-pinch hitter, the 7-9 spots in the order, starting the inning. If you have the top of your order up in the ninth and think you'll score runs to win the game, you might be more willing to burn Heilman and bring in Wagner. That wasn't the case, though.

It's one of those inconvenient rules in baseball that you can't bring players back into the game after you take them out. So, Randolph couldn't use Heilman for the 8th, then Wagner for the 9th and 10th, then come back with Heilman. A bullpen has a few bullets, but how many of them do you actually trust to hit the target? Wagner had even had troubles during the series. Heilman seemed like he was breezing along. You don't want to waste a valuable commodity like that by removing him after just one inning. You also don't want to waste a valuable commodity like Wagner against the weak part of the opposition's line-up.

Willie Randolph shouldn't be second guessed. His decision to leave Heilman in the game was fine. Not only was it not a bad decision, it was the correct decision. If the game had gone to the 14th tied at 1 and the Mets had to use Steve Trachsel because they'd brought Wagner in in the 9th, people would be bemoaning the fact that Randolph wasn't more careful burning through his quality relievers. Heilman made a bad pitch at a bad time to Yadier Molina. His changeup didn't sink and moved back over the fat part of the plate. Molina took advantage. That kind of thing happens. Pitchers make bad pitches. Wainwright hung some curves in the bottom half of the ninth, but the Met hitters didn't take advantage. That is why you play the games. It isn't always a strategical decision that loses the game ... and in this case, it just wasn't in the cards for the Mets.

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