Riley-ing Things Up

Mike Riley and his Oregon State Beavers gave the talking heads even more reason to ramble yesterday. They gave the USC Trojans a loss, to go with all the close victories they've piled up in their conference schedule. Now, there are only 5 BCS conference teams remaining: two in the Big 10 (Ohio State and Michigan) and three in the Big East (West Virginia, Rutgers and Louisville). There are four games between those five teams - Michigan at Ohio State, West Virginia at Louisville, Rutgers at WVU, and Louisville at Rutgers - that will leave, at most, one one-loss team from each the Big Ten and Big East. The only other D-1 school with a chance to go undefeated is Boise State. Thus, there is no easy way out for the BCS. They won't have a match-up between two major unbeatens, USC and Ohio State/Michigan.

If one of the Big East teams runs the table, they will, in all likelihood, be up against some big-name one-loss schools. Texas as the Big 12 champion is a possibility. USC or California out of the Pac-10. Florida or Auburn as the SEC champ. Notre Dame has only one loss, and that loss is to Michigan. And, finally, the loser of the late-season 1 v. 2 Big 10 showdown. I am aware that B.C. or Wake Forest could finish as a one-loss ACC champ, but there is no way I'd put a one-loss ACC team over an undefeated Big East team. That would be asinine.

So, I'm going to help sort through this all for you. I'm hoping Charlie Weis will take a look. He may be befuddled, but the landscape will clear and Notre Dame will land in a BCS game, if they win out.

The following games are scheduled for the remainder of the season:
Michigan at Ohio State, WVU at Louisville, Rutgers at WVU, Louisville at Rutgers, Oregon at USC, Cal at USC, Notre Dame at USC, LSU at Tennessee, Tennessee at Arkansas, Georgia at Auburn, Florida at FSU, Boston College at Wake Forest, Virginia Tech at Wake Forest, and Big 12, ACC, and SEC title games.

Starting out West, the Pac-10 will have, at most, one one-loss team. Cal has three relatively easy games and the showdown at USC. If Notre Dame beats USC, Notre Dame will have one loss and a good win. So, between USC, ND and Cal, there will be, at most, two one-loss teams and possibly none, if USC beats Cal and ND but loses to Oregon. Texas seems to be sitting pretty, with only an early-season loss to Ohio State. The most likely one-loss team escaping from the ACC is B.C., but B.C. has a non-conference schedule that makes you wonder if they used to be in the Big East ... oh wait, they defected from the Big East. The loser of the Michigan v. Ohio State game will have one loss. If it's Michigan in a close game, they'll have a claim to a neutral site shot in the BCS title game.

So, we're left with the Big East, where there may not be an undefeated team. More likely, one of the teams will be in on discussion for the title game. And, in the SEC, there are four one-loss teams and it's not unreasonable to think three of them will end the regular-season that way, although the cleaner scenario would be if Tennessee beat Arkansas and lost to LSU, leaving one-loss teams Auburn and Florida to battle in the SEC title game. That would leave one one-loss SEC team and they'd be the conference champ.

And, if Oklahoma wins out, they'll have a loss to Texas and the travesty that happened in Eugene. So, I think they should be considered as a one-loss team at that point, but they won't be in on the national title game talk.

So, at worst, at the end of the season we'll have:
Michigan and Ohio State (one undefeated and one with one loss)
USC (one loss) or Cal (one loss) or Cal and Notre Dame (one loss each)
Texas (one loss) and Oklahoma
Auburn and Arkansas or Florida (one loss) or Tennessee and Auburn or Florida (one loss)
Could Auburn, Florida and Tennessee end the season with one-loss?
B.C. or Wake Forest (one loss)
and whatever happens in the Big East.

So, it's still a little bit of a mess, but a one-loss Notre Dame team gets in a BCS bowl. It's a shame that one loss can, and two losses almost certainly does, eliminate you from national title contention. It limits the chances coaches take with non-conference games and that's not good, right? I like seeing Notre Dame v. USC and Ohio State v. Texas. But, that's the way it is right now. People tend not to look at the results, they'd rather consider just the records and a little bit of extra information. It's easier.