Reggie Bush is a very talented athlete with speed, quickness, and good hands. He's adept at lining up in the backfield or out wide at WR and can also hurt you in the return game. However, Bush is doing his team damage with his indecisiveness and desire to bust a big play on every snap.
University of Oklahoma RB Adrian Peterson was praised earlier this year for making the most of what is available to him on every run, rather than dancing around looking for a home run on every play. Peterson gained 1925 yards as a freshman. You can put up big numbers while not fulfilling potential, obviously. Now, that isn't to say that big plays won't come, but you shouldn't actively seek them out. Peterson had two 40+ yard runs against Iowa State, including the 53-yard TD run on which Peterson suffered a broken collarbone.
On one play in the Saints-Eagles game Sunday, the Saints ran a sweep to the left. LT Jamaal Brown was blocking Eagles S Sean Considine. Considine was on the sideline side of Brown for at least one of two reasons: (1) Considine was trying to prevent Bush from getting to the sideline and was attempting to force him back inside and/or (2) Brown was trying to kick him out wide so Bush could get downfield quicker and leave himself more room to manuever, rather than head straight for the sideline and then cutting it upfield. Bush needed to cut it upfield right away. He had a huge, gaping even, hole between the tackle and guard. The Eagles had one defender coming in to fill the hole, but the hole was big enough that it needed 3 defenders to fill. Bush needed to make that guy miss and then head for the endzone.
However, looking for a path where no defenders were, Bush danced, allowing the hole to close a little bit, and headed for the sideline. Brown had no choice but to hold to keep Considine off Bush and the little yardage Bush gained along the sideline was negated by the holding penalty. The dancing allowed the defense to improve their position and Bush's proximity to the sideline decreased his effectiveness in space. So, rather than a positive gain and potential for a big play if Bush could juke one defender, the Saints were backed up by a needless penalty.
Bush is a great talent, but this is the type of mistake he can't continue to make if he is going to be a legitimate great in the NFL. He can be a star dancing, but Matt Leinart is already a star, so that's not saying much.
On a related note, I'm getting tired of all-purpose yards being thrown around like they are a meaningful stat. Or, as FOX did for Bush, touches and yards. Against the Eagles, Bush had 11 runs for 25 yards (2.3 ypc with a long of 7 yards), 4 catches for 35 yards (8.8 ypc), and 29 yards on 3 punt returns (9.7 ypr). So, on 18 touches, Bush had 89 all-purpose yards. That's an average of almost 5 yards per touch. What does it mean? Not much, really.
Reggie Bush shouldn't be judged on just his rushing yardage. He is on pace for just over 500 yards rushing. That's not fair. Reggie Bush is a big contributor in the passing game; Bush is on track for 100+ receptions and 750+ yards receiving. That is how he should be used. Deuce McAllister is a better every down back than Bush. The Houston Texans passed on Bush at least in part because they thought Domanick Davis was a fine every down back and Bush would just be an accessory for the offense, and they thought Mario Williams would fill a bigger need. But, 1300 yards from scrimmage as a rookie in the NFL would be a solid accomplishment, and I wouldn't be surprised to see his numbers improve as the year goes on. He might rack up 1500 yards from scrimmage, and that is the number that I want to see. Give me yards from scrimmage, not all-purpose yards because if a player returns kicks, that's usually at least 20 yards per pop. The Saints had 3 different people return kickoffs against the Eagles and they all averaged over 20 yards per return, although Bush wasn't one of them (he just did punt returns). But, punt returns are usually 8-10 yards per, so if you get a lot of opportunities, you'll rack up considerable yardage. So, what I want to know is how Bush ranks as a punt returner. Bush is in the top tier (#8), racking up an average of 10.7, trailing Devin Hester, Kevin Faulk, Dante Hall, Terrence Wilkins, Dennis Northcutt, Allen Rossum, and Wes Welker. So, there are 32 teams and Bush is #8, so he's ahead of returners for 75% of the teams. That's solid, but not spectacular. But, lumped in with his yards from scrimmage, he's a good, not great, player.
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The stat you want is yards above average per touch. That is, for each run, reception, and return, subtract the league average for the appropriate stat from Bush's tally, and then divide by the number of touches. That gives you his average contribution compared to any other player, and should be robust to comparing across categories. (Differences in standard deviation and higher order moments might have some residual effects, but you'd get a pretty good picture.) A possible problem is that receptions made as a running back might not be fair in comparison to receptions made as a wide receiver. Different routes mean different yardage.
Obviously, there are problems in just analyzing the raw numbers associated with Reggie Bush. First, if he lines up as a WR on some plays and in the backfield on others, you'd need a percentage of catches from each position to do a "fair" comparison. Obviously, you can run different routes from the same position, and similar routes from different positions, but you usually compare RB's to RB's and WR's to WR's.
One additional element to consider is a percent over the average rather than an average difference. Michael Vick leads the league in rushing average yards per carry (8.6). However, he's a QB and his runs aren't comparable to Bush's. Of RB's with 50+ carries, Brian Westbrook is #1 with an average of 5.5. Reggie Bush is averaging a meager 3.0 ypc ... that's 54.5% of Westbrook's value. The 41st player on the list is averaging 3.1 per carry. The top receivers are netting about 20 yards per catch, with the 41st player on the list being Larry Fitzgerald at 13.4 yards per catch. Bush is averaging just 7.5 yards per catch. However, he's ahead of the RB with the second-most receptions, Detroit's Kevin Jones who's averaging 7.2. Tomlinson is netting 7.7 and Westbrook is picking up 11.1 as the third and fourth RB's with 30+ catches so far. So, Bush has solid but unspectacular numbers, for what the numbers mean, in that regard, too.
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